It was early morning. Despite the strong monsoon, there was a big crowd for the funeral. The house was in the valley of a small hill at Kurancheri, a village 8-10 km away from my home. Suddenly they heard a sound, and everyone thought it is a strong thunder. It was the most devastating landslide they have ever seen. Half portion of the hill came down, uprooting several trees and rocks. Within seconds the whole area got covered by mud. About 19 people died at the spot, and several homes and shops got destroyed. The news sent a chill on my spine. My house is close to this place and in the valley of a similar mountain. For any Keralite, this story can be relatable since the whole state witnessed a devastating flood in 2018. In 2019 again, there was flooding and landslide at many places in Kerala, which killed several people. The disaster is becoming a new normal: floods in the fall and drought in the summer. The worst part is that it is not going to get any better soon.
The question of climate change is around for many decades among academic circles. Whenever we hear people hear about it, it is considered a distant threat. Moreover, many people think the effect of climate change will be a one-day worldwide apocalypse like the terrible movie in 2012. But the fact is that climate change has started taking its toll on people's lives. It is no longer a problem for the dystopian future. Recent heatwaves in Canada, as well as floods in Europe and China, killed more than 1000 people. As I write this, a forest fire is overtaking Turkey, Greece and other parts of Europe. More than 166,000 people have died due to extreme temperatures between 1998 and 2017. The frequency of heatwave occurrence has been increasing in the last decade. So it is a crime to think climate change is a distant threat, and we need to speak about it now.
Why talking about it now?
On 9th August 2021, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), released a report on up-to-date information about climate change. A quick summary of the report is here:
The average temperature of the world has increased by 1.1 degrees compared to the pre-industrial era, and it will increase by 1.5 degrees by 2050, even if we choose the best environmental strategy. With no strategy or a less aggressive one, it can cross the limit of 2 degrees.
Climate change is man-made.
The sea-level increase of 0.5m is inevitable by the end of the century. If we continue to use fossil fuels intensively, it can be up to 1m. Even the lowest estimate many Asian cities and some islands will be submerged, affecting millions of people.
The frequent extreme events are due to the shift in climate and are expected to increase in future.
There cannot be a clear wake-up call than this report. Fast and effective action is the need of the hour. But before accepting this is all inevitable and leave it to the government, we should all be aware and discuss it.
What has been done?
In 2015, an international treaty was made to reduce the rate at which the global temperature is rising. This was negotiated among 196 countries worldwide. The aim was to keep the rise in temperature below 1.5 degrees. It urged the countries to have individual plans for reducing carbon emission, reviewed every 5 years. Though Trump has pulled the USA out of the agreement, they have rejoined after Joe Biden took the office in 2021.
The goal of the nations was to be carbon neutral by 2050. This means the majority of the power production will be green. Although countries have agreed on this, most of them lack strong action. Even after 2020, many countries like India and China are building coal plants.
The problem of political incentives
Will you vote for a party that promises to slow down the growth? This is the fundamental problem in having a strong climate action. Look at the USAI They backed off from the Paris agreement due to Trump. Now they are back. But climate actions needs long term commitments. Countries like India will be affected the most when extreme events increases. More than 12 cities in India will be covered with 2-3 feet of water, making millions of people homeless. Still, there is no mention of climate actions in our political discourse. For this, we need to educate people about the issue.
What needs to be done
There are many things that we can do at individual and government levels. First, the government should prepare for the inevitable. Finding out the most vulnerable areas and reduce the activity and settlements there would be one key strategy. This includes coastal and high range areas. The next is to devote a good amount of budget to disaster management. Even with the optimistic plans, the extreme events will increase, and we need to reduce the damage. The climate models are getting better over time. The effect of the temperature rise is not the same for different parts of the world. We need to ask our governments to listen to the scientists.
My intention with this issue of the newsletter is to kick off some discussions. Writing this made me read many articles and papers. This is what we all should do right away. You cannot find a solution unless you study the problem. Let us all discuss more IPCC reports and force the policymakers to do the same.
There are many individual efforts you can take to reduce your carbon footprint. The major one being the use of public transport or bicycles for your commute. Consuming local goods and avoiding air travel are other ways. But the most important thing is to educate ourselves and others and force our lawmakers to act on it.