We strongly believe that there is a reason or cause behind everything. The moment India crashed out of the world cup, the stories of the rift in the team or team members indulging in luxury become believable causes. Similarly, when a political party wins in India, people attribute victory to a religious consolidation. We also struggle to distinguish between correlation and causation.
At the same time, our thinking is also influenced by loss aversion bias. For individuals, the pain of losing is psychologically twice as powerful as the pleasure of gaining. So when my daughter comes up with a good performance, the fear of her slipping down is far greater than the pleasure of getting the grade. So I feel the urge to caution while congratulating her for the achievement.
We strongly believe that there is a reason or cause behind everything. The moment India crashed out of the world cup, the stories of the rift in the team or team members indulging in luxury become believable causes. Similarly, when a political party wins in India, people attribute victory to a religious consolidation. We also struggle to distinguish between correlation and causation.
At the same time, our thinking is also influenced by loss aversion bias. For individuals, the pain of losing is psychologically twice as powerful as the pleasure of gaining. So when my daughter comes up with a good performance, the fear of her slipping down is far greater than the pleasure of getting the grade. So I feel the urge to caution while congratulating her for the achievement.